The first day of Cheltenham Festival 2010 is finally here! This week we get to celebrate horse racing in its purest form: at the home of National Hunt, Cheltenham Racecourse.

Cheltenham Festival 2010 gets underway with Day One on Tuesday 16th March 2010 – Champion Hurdle Day – discover Systemlays’ tips for backers and layers below.

Each day we’ll be tipping the winners and losers in the 2010 Cheltenham Festival – as is now customary – giving you a valuable insight into what we, at Systemlays UK, do every day for every horse race in the UK and Ireland, and also, we hope, repeating last years feats of banging in winners at 33/1 or more!

Each race will follow the same format: we’ll have a table, in order of our ratings, which shows the horse’s name, number, and the odds at time of publication (so this may have changed – as we prepare tips the day before based upon our ratings, unless there is major adverse weather predicted), which you can click to jump straight out to the bookmakers website and place your own bets. We’ll follow this table with a short paragraph or two on what this means and what we suggest you back and lay in that race.

To get started, simply choose the race in the list below to jump straight to that event, or scroll down. The choice, is yours:

• Race One 1:30pm – Spinal Research Supreme Novices Hurdle;
• Race Two 2:05pm – Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase;
• Race Three 2:40pm – William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase;
• Race Four 3:20 – Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy;
• Race Five 4:00 – Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country);
• Race Six 4:40 – David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle

Race One 1:30pm – Spinal Research Supreme Novices Hurdle – 2m110y

The Supreme Novices Hurdle is the traditional way to start the Festival as we glimpse the stars of the future in this ultra-competitive speedy event. There’s always a lot of people looking to land a gamble in this one, so lets see what pointers we have been noticing on the clock and try to make that us today!

Supreme Novices Tips and Ratings Review

As with all of our Cheltenham Festival 2010 tips, these are NOT bets we would recommend day-to-day (see them elsewhere – we normally only tip 1-5 bets in a given day) but this list is to help those of us who want to have a little each way on Cheltenham races.

DUNGUIB is likely to start a short-priced favourite for this opener, which is no surprise, as the horse has won every time it has been on course since his debut – that’s 8 out of 9 races – and these were in high, high class events against serious opposition. We would not dream of laying DUNGUIB – we really liked his last time out form at Leopardstown on the clock too, so we put him bang in the top three. However, because of the price, and our speed ratings (the above representation of which is not our only criteria when selecting good bets each day) we think that a tiny amount each-way on VINO GRIEGO and GET ME OUT OF HERE would be sensible options. You might also consider a small conbination Exacta with the Tote on the three horses.

We base our rating of VINO GRIEGO on his penultimate run, on heavy going, and the time achieved with going correction, hence the bet is tentative for several reasons, however, at a great price, this horse which has hinted at class might well spring a surprise.

GET ME OUT OF HERE, on the other hand, has never been beaten. He was ultra-impressive at Newbury last time out – and we clocked that effort as better than anything DUNGUIB has produced on course to date. Expect these two to run each other close right to the line, with a little distance over the field – however, this race often sees a big improver which has targeted it coming over the Irish Sea, so it isn’t one to get too heavily involved with.

Who to Back

• GET ME OUT OF HERE and PINOT GRIEGO both each way – small stakes
• Put DUNGUIB into Placepot, Jackpot, or Exacta perms

Who to Lay

We suggest that BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN at around 13/1 on the betting exchanges is the value lay for this race. The horse has been beaten on a couple of occassions when tested, and has not put down a mark to date which suggests this race is within him.

Race Two 2:05pm – Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase – 2m

The Arkle is a great chase named after a super horse – it is two miles over the larger fences, so offers a stern test which combines speed with good jumping, and finishes up the slope at Cheltenham adding a touch of stamina to the mix required too. Here is our take on the times these horses have put down to date:

Arkle Tips and Ratings Review

As you can see from the table above, we place SPORTS LINE a little way ahead of KANGAROO COURT who is in turn a slight margin in front of I’M DELILAH on Systemlays ratings.

SPORTS LINE brings a good rating from the last two performances, but last time at Leopardstown was on heavy going, so that adjusted rating must be considered less useful than if the gournd were to be the same here. That being said, it should be enough to suggest a great each-way chance for this horse.

KANGAROO COURT won here at Cheltenham last time out, which is a great indicator of future prospects – but the reason this horse is our second-top rated is the race before that at Uttoxeter which was won classily in a good time. The time before that, the horse blitzed the field in a hurdle at Lingfield in a very impressive time, too. We think that 25/1 will go, and we’ll be taking plenty of it ourselves as it is a tempting price on this horse.

Who to Back

• SPORTS LINE and KANGAROO COURT both each-way

Who to Lay

The anticipated favourite, CAPTAIN CEE BEE has to be a small lay for us based on this season’s performances on the clock. This is a classy horse that likes Cheltenham, however, so don’t lay this one heavily, we just recommend it as the value at the price: we’ll be laying FOSTERS CROSS for our full maximum liability in this race.

Race Three 2:40pm – William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase

The William Hills trophy, being a large handicap, is often extremely difficult to select the top horse in, and this year is no different!

William Hill Trophy Tips and Ratings Review

As you can see, it is tight at the top of these high class handicaps so, while there will probably be more than a couple of lengths across the front four by the time they get round over three miles of Cheltenham, before they start, it is difficult to split the top seven or eight horses by more than a cigarette paper. That being said, these are extremely high ratings for a handicap, so those that are up there have to be considered excellent prospects for at least a top four finish.

Who to Back

Our top three rated, KNOWHERE, OGEE and CASEY JONES should give you a good run for your each-way money with some decent odds offering a good prize if one of them can get its nose in front here.

Who to Lay

We recommend a win only market lay of CHARACTER BUILDING in this event for around half of your usual maximum liability.

Race Four 3:20 – Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy – 2m110y

This is the big one – the Champion Hurdle has seen many great names show the mixture of speed, stamina and flat jumping required to lift this great race. Here is how we rate the chances of the class of 2010:

Tips and Ratings Review

At first glance you’ll notice that there is a distinctly “upside down” feel to our ratings, but don’t be fooled about the chances of JUMBO RIO, while we feel he is better than a 100/1 shot, we’d expect the soft ground form which puts him top of this tree to be more than suspect, and instead the horses most likely to upset the favourite GO NATIVE are BINOCULAR and last year’s impressive ZAYNAR, both of which we suggest an each-way bet on.

Who to Back

A small each-way bet on BINOCULAR and ZAYNAR is the advised bet and, if you want to take a long-shot on, add JUMBO RIO in and go for a place at 100/1.

Who to Lay

You must have been expecting this from the ratings table. This race is a really good indication of why we’re objective about a horse’s chances, and we get it right when we lay over 94% of the time. Our strike rate is 98% in level weights events like this one. We are laying GO NATIVE because we weight the races that a horse has performed more recently more highly than those of previous seasons. GO NATIVE on this basis has not performed close to the mark he was at this time last year, and would need to show vastly iproved form to lift this race against such strong rivals, who HAVE shown more this term. We will be laying this favourite to our usual maximum liability. That does not mean that GO NATIVE cannot win this race: quite patently he can, however, statistically, based upon objective common markers, other horses are more likely to win this race, on this day, and we’re prepared to risk a %age of our bank on that outcome occuring.

Race Five 4:00 – Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country) – 3m7f

This is always fun to watch, but often quite a difficult race to assess objectively before and afterwards owing to the fact this course is rarely used, its over a strange distance and the horses are jumping all sorts of stuff. All of which make the Glenfarclas Handicap Chase fun to watch and a bit of a coinflip, but not necessarily the best event as a betting medium. Here is how these horses stack up under today’s conditions:

Tips and Ratings Review

Despite being 100/1 and right at the bottom of this handicap, TAWNIES has performed creditably on this cross country course before and, as we have no stand-out bet in this race, we recommend as small a stake as you are allowed on this horse each way. JP McManus has 5 horses in this race, and there’s every chance one of his will get up – but as ever, it is very difficult to know which. The market may be a better guide to that conundrum than our ratings.

Who to Back

Small each way on TAWNIES

Who to Lay

We’ll be laying DROMBEAG in this event for full liability, though the price is nothing to get too excited about.

Race Six 4:40 – David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle – 2m4f

This final race is the mares only hurdle, and it represents a more conventional race for those of us who like consistency of course and conditions in order to predict race results.

Tips and Ratings Review

We don’t put a huge amount between the best performances of CAROLE’S LEGACY, EASTER LEGEND and the favourite QUEVEGA, so we suggest that you cover the three with small each-way bet and/or a combination Exacta or even a 10p wheeled Trifecta or similar – we put them a little margin in front of the next best, and this often indicates a 1,2 or a 1,2,3 is on the cards – however, the variables in a big race of this nature are huge, so those sort of bets are not advised as anything other than a fun of the Festival sort of bet!

Who to Back

• Take CAROLE’S LEGACY and EASTER LEGEND each way, and place a win bet of the same amount on QUEVEGA
• Forecast the three to be 1 and 2 in any order for the lowest stake possible.

Who to Lay

We will be laying Sway at around 20.0 on the betting exchanges.

NAP OF THE DAY

As we have found one or two dangers in every race, and there is no stand-out horse on the backing side of things, our NAP of the day is to lay the favourite in the Champion Hurdle: we are LAYING GO NATIVE on Betfair.

Whether you choose to follow us in, or ignore our advice altogether, we hope you have a very successful first day of Cheltenham Festival 2010 – check out the free bets available here if you are betting online.

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