Cheltenham Festival Tips – Day Three – World Hurdle Day
The second day of Cheltenham Festival 2010 was considerably less fun than the first for us – largely due to the underachievement of MASTER MINDED in the Queen Mother Chase, though we still managed to land a 50-1+ reverse forecast in the second race which brought a smile to many of the smaller stakes guys faces!
Today should see things get back on more of an even keel, however, as there is plenty more high quality racing to be enjoyed from Cheltenham.
As with the previous two days, the tips below are not to be used in line with our daily backing and laying tips – they are simple additional tips for those of us who enjoy betting on Cheltenham Festival races, and to provide you with an insight into what we do, day-in, day-out, for every horse race in the UK and Ireland, every day, for free.
We recommend you set a small limit for each race, and stick to it.
For Cheltenham Festival 2010 Day Three, we’ll be tipping selections in every race, and sorting the horses in order of our ratings to aid you with your betting decisions. Click the links below to jump straight to the race you are looking for, or simply scroll down the page below:
- 1:30 – Jewson Novices´ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 2m5f
- 2:05 – Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) – 3m
- 2:40 – Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Steeple Chase) – 2m5f
- 3:20 – Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 – 3m
- 4:00 – Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) Grade 3 – 2m5f
- 4:40 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase) (Amateur Riders) – 3m1f110y
1:30 – Jewson Novices´ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 2m5f
Another novice handicap chase to get the third day started.
Jewson Novices´ Handicap Chase Runners, Form, Ratings and Best Odds:
| No. | Name | Weight | Systemlays Rating | Best Odds |
| 17 | RIVALISTE(FR) | 10-13 | 203.5 | 7/1 Bet365 |
| 18 | GANSEY(IRE) | 10-13 | 200.5 | 20/1 Sky Bet |
| 19 | TANKS FOR THAT(IRE) | 10-11 | 193.5 | 25/1 Ladbrokes |
| 15 | THE HOLLINWELL | 11-0 | 191 | 9/1 Coral |
| 6 | FIENDISH FLAME(IRE) | 11-4 | 191 | 28/1 Coral |
| 2 | SEVEN IS MY NUMBER(IRE) | 11-9 | 189.5 | 33/1 Blue Square |
| 16 | WORKING TITLE(IRE) | 10-13 | 188 | 28/1 Sky Bet |
| 11 | DOOR BOY(IRE) | 11-1 | 187 | 25/1 Victor Chandler |
| 4 | LENABANE(IRE) | 11-6 | 184.5 | 20/1 Bet365 |
| 20 | KING`S FOREST(IRE) | 10-11 | 182 | 20/1 Bet365 |
| 5 | JERED(IRE) | 11-4 | 172.5 | 14/1 Bet365 |
| 13 | DAVE`S DREAM(IRE) | 11-0 | 171 | 12/1 Totesport |
| 1 | TAKE THE BREEZE(FR) | 11-10 | 170 | 40/1 Sporting Bet |
| 3 | HEY BIG SPENDER(IRE) | 11-8 | 163.5 | 10/1 Bet365 |
| 9 | AWESOME GEORGE | 11-2 | 163.5 | 33/1 Sporting Bet |
| 10 | COPPER BLEU(IRE) | 11-1 | 163 | 14/1 Bet365 |
| 7 | CHINA ROCK(IRE) | 11-3 | 162 | 10/1 Ladbrokes |
| 8 | NICANOR(FR) | 11-2 | 150 | 14/1 Bet365 |
| 14 | OTHERMIX(FR) | 11-0 | 148 | 50/1 Bet365 |
| 12 | THE MIDNIGHT CLUB(IRE) | 11-1 | 143 | 20/1 Bet365 |
Jewson Novices´ Handicap Chase Tips and Ratings Review:
The market agrees with our take on this race: RIVALISTE appears the most likely winner of this handicap chase, though we put it pretty close to GANSEY whom we suggest as an each-way chance that could well make the frame in yet another 4 place paying Cheltenham Festival handicap event.
Who to Back
Back RIVALISTE and GANSEY, both each-way. Consider a minimum stake reverse forecast on the two.
Who to Lay
We will be laying THE MIDNIGHT CLUB, but the price will be prohibitive for many – unless playing in the dangerous place market.
2:05 – Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) – 3m
One of the biggest handicap hurdle events of the year – and one of the toughest, over three miles of undulating Gloucestershire.
Pertemps Final Runners, Form, Ratings and Best Odds:
| No. | Name | Weight | Systemlays Rating | Best Odds |
| 3 | TRENCHANT | 11-6 | 203 | 25/1 Sky Bet |
| 13 | SMOKING ACES(IRE) | 10-6 | 201.5 | 11/1 Bet365 |
| 5 | ALFIE SHERRIN | 11-1 | 201.5 | 7/2 Totesport |
| 15 | BOULAVOGUE(IRE) | 10-5 | 199.5 | 33/1 Bet365 |
| 10 | PRINCE ERIK | 10-8 | 199.5 | 12/1 Totesport |
| 22 | MAUCAILLOU(GER) | 10-3 | 196.5 | 25/1 Bet365 |
| 8 | TIME ELECTRIC(IRE) | 10-9 | 193 | 20/1 Bet365 |
| 14 | FREDO(IRE) | 10-5 | 191.5 | 18/1 Totesport |
| 4 | KAYF ARAMIS | 11-6 | 189.5 | 25/1 Totesport |
| 20 | ROCCO`S HALL(IRE) | 10-3 | 188 | 33/1 Bet365 |
| 18 | BUENA VISTA(IRE) | 10-4 | 183.5 | 22/1 Sporting Bet |
| 21 | CROSS KENNON(IRE) | 10-3 | 183 | 25/1 Sky Bet |
| 17 | COLLEGE DAISY(IRE) | 10-4 | 182.5 | 40/1 Sporting Bet |
| 12 | SOUTH O`THE BORDER | 10-6 | 179.5 | 40/1 Victor Chandler |
| 9 | MONTANA SLIM(IRE) | 10-9 | 177.5 | 66/1 Sporting Bet |
| 1 | MR THRILLER(FR) | 11-12 | 174 | 33/1 Bet365 |
| 11 | ERZEN(IRE) | 10-6 | 173 | 28/1 Totesport |
| 23 | SILK AFFAIR(IRE) | 10-2 | 172.5 | 25/1 Sporting Bet |
| 2 | BALLYFITZ | 11-8 | 163 | 33/1 Sporting Bet |
| 19 | CHAMIREY(FR) | 10-4 | 162 | 33/1 Ladbrokes |
| 16 | PALYPSO DE CREEK(FR) | 10-5 | 159.5 | 33/1 Ladbrokes |
| 7 | AINAMA(IRE) | 10-10 | 154 | 8/1 Ladbrokes |
| 6 | DON`T PUSH IT(IRE) | 11-0 | 152 | 22/1 Sporting Bet |
| 24 | SPECIAL OCCASION | 10-2 | 130 | 40/1 Sporting Bet |
Pertemps Final Tips and Ratings Review:
There are three horses which stand slightly ahead of the field in this Listed handicap hurdle: TRENCHANT, SMOKING ACES and ALFIE SHERRIN – we suggest you back each of these three with a very small each-way bet with another 4 (or 5 with Bet365) places to aim for.
Who to Back
TRENCHANT, SMOKING ACES and ALFIE SHERRIN each-way should pay dividends.
Who to Lay
Lay AINAMA to half of your usual liability here, if the price remains under 11.0 on Betfair.
2:40 – Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Steeple Chase) – 2m5f
The Ryanair Chase always produces an excellent crop of chasers who are either on their way up, or who have taken a step down from the very top of the chasing tree. Either way, it is a fascinating battle of wits over the gruelling two miles and five furlongs.
Ryanair Chase Runners, Form, Ratings and Best Odds:
| No. | Name | Weight | Systemlays Rating | Best Odds |
| 13 | J`Y VOLE(FR) | 11-3 | 189 | 20/1 Sporting Bet |
| 4 | DEEP PURPLE | 11-10 | 187.5 | 25/1 Totesport |
| 3 | BARKER(IRE) | 11-10 | 184 | 33/1 Betfred |
| 5 | JACK THE GIANT(IRE) | 11-10 | 180.5 | 33/1 Paddy Power |
| 10 | SCOTSIRISH(IRE) | 11-10 | 179.5 | 28/1 Bet365 |
| 11 | TRANQUIL SEA(IRE) | 11-10 | 173 | 9/2 Sporting Bet |
| 12 | VOY POR USTEDES(FR) | 11-10 | 170.5 | 16/1 Bet365 |
| 8 | POQUELIN(FR) | 11-10 | 169 | 7/2 Boylesports |
| 1 | ALBERTAS RUN(IRE) | 11-10 | 167.5 | 16/1 Bet365 |
| 9 | SCHINDLERS HUNT(IRE) | 11-10 | 164.5 | 12/1 Sporting Bet |
| 2 | BARBERS SHOP | 11-10 | 156.5 | 6/1 Sky Bet |
| 6 | PETIT ROBIN(FR) | 11-10 | 156 | 16/1 Ladbrokes |
| 7 | PLANET OF SOUND | 11-10 | 155 | 14/1 Totesport |
Ryanair Chase Tips and Ratings Review:
We’ve got this field grouped very closely, based on recent performances, so the tentative suggestion is to take a small bit of Sporting Bet‘s 20-1 on J’Y VOLE. Layers should be looking at the bottom three horses on our ratings, but note that the spread between top and bottom is very low, so it would not be unlikely that one from the bottom half could take this race. With that in mind, we suggest capping your risk to 25% of your ordinary lay liability – and if this means avoiding the race, then so be it.
Who to Back
J’Y VOLE – minimum each-way
Who to Lay
PLANET OF SOUND
3:20 – Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 – 3m
The World Hurdle is one of our favourite events of any Festival – not least because of the great performances in recent years by horses like Barracouda (horses with that level of consistency make ratings really work for you) – and this year’s is sure to be no different.
World Hurdle Runners, Form, Ratings and Best Odds:
| No. | Name | Weight | Systemlays Rating | Best Odds |
| 12 | TIDAL BAY(IRE) | 11-10 | 195 | 15/2 Paddy Power |
| 6 | KARABAK(FR) | 11-10 | 186.5 | 9/1 Ladbrokes |
| 5 | FAIR ALONG(GER) | 11-10 | 182 | 100/1 Ladbrokes |
| 1 | BIG BUCK`S(FR) | 11-10 | 181 | 8/11 Sporting Bet |
| 11 | SENTRY DUTY(FR) | 11-10 | 178 | 14/1 Sky Bet |
| 13 | TIME FOR RUPERT(IRE) | 11-10 | 175.5 | 20/1 Bet365 |
| 4 | EBADIYAN(IRE) | 11-10 | 174 | 100/1 Totesport |
| 9 | OSCAR DAN DAN(IRE) | 11-10 | 173.5 | 100/1 Bet365 |
| 7 | KATCHIT(IRE) | 11-10 | 173 | 20/1 Bet365 |
| 3 | COUSIN VINNY(IRE) | 11-10 | 171 | 33/1 Totesport |
| 10 | POWERSTATION(IRE) | 11-10 | 164.5 | 40/1 Bet365 |
| 14 | WAR OF ATTRITION(IRE) | 11-10 | 160 | 40/1 Coral |
| 8 | LIE FORRIT(IRE) | 11-10 | 157.5 | 50/1 Bet365 |
| 2 | CAPE TRIBULATION | 11-10 | 150.5 | 80/1 Totesport |
World Hurdle Tips and Ratings Review:
An interesting conundrum is posed here by our preference for TIDAL BAY based on his performance last time out suggesting he is good enough to get the better of BIG BUCK’S under today’s conditions. BIG BUCK’S is a horse we laid unsuccessfully in last year’s Festival. Ordinarily, we would say BIG BUCK’S is too close to the top of our ratings – something that is always dangerous from horses which have won readily as this one has (owing to the fact that the time is not as fast as it might be were the race more of a test) – to be considered a worthwhile lay. And, quite rightly, we would not suggest laying this horse for high liabilities, as, statistically, we’d expect BIG BUCKS to win this race something like 25% of the time. Therefore, at this price, the prospect becomes worthy of consideration: is it odds against that BIG BUCK’S will not win this race? Not in our opinion, BIG BUCK’S should be a 4-1 shot (1/4 that he loses). We suggest backing TIDAL BAY each-way, and covering that total stake with a win only market lay of BIG BUCK’S – keep the stakes small, however, as this is a bet with a higher risk factor than we would ordinarily advise (we would not touch this race were it not the Festival). Only lay BIG BUCK’S if the price remains odds-on.
Who to Back
TIDAL BAY, each-way
Who to Lay
BIG BUCK’S – keep stakes low (see above)
4:00 – Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) Grade 3 – 2m5f
Another tough chase handicap here – below is our appraisal.
Byrne Group Plate Runners, Form, Ratings and Best Odds:
| No. | Name | Weight | Systemlays Rating | Best Odds |
| 22 | VICTORIAS GROOM(GER) | 10-1 | 204.5 | 50/1 Totesport |
| 23 | CHANGING COURSE(IRE) | 10-1 | 202.5 | 50/1 Ladbrokes |
| 14 | KNIGHT LEGEND(IRE) | 10-8 | 197 | 66/1 Blue Square |
| 9 | WATCH MY BACK | 10-11 | 195 | 8/1 Bet365 |
| 18 | GREAT ENDEAVOUR(IRE) | 10-4 | 193 | 25/1 Sporting Bet |
| 21 | FROM DAWN TO DUSK | 10-3 | 188 | 25/1 Bet365 |
| 12 | ATOUCHBETWEENACARA(IRE) | 10-10 | 185.5 | 14/1 Betfred |
| 20 | SUNNYHILLBOY(IRE) | 10-3 | 181 | 9/1 Ladbrokes |
| 1 | OUR VIC(IRE) | 11-12 | 180 | 40/1 Sky Bet |
| 16 | PRIVATE BE | 10-6 | 173 | 25/1 Totesport |
| 4 | IN COMPLIANCE(IRE) | 11-4 | 171 | 20/1 Sporting Bet |
| 13 | MOUNT OSCAR(IRE) | 10-8 | 170.5 | 40/1 Coral |
| 6 | THE SAWYER(BEL) | 11-3 | 169.5 | 22/1 StanJames |
| 17 | MARTYS MISSION(IRE) | 10-4 | 168 | 33/1 Ladbrokes |
| 11 | MISTER MCGOLDRICK | 10-11 | 167 | 40/1 Ladbrokes |
| 24 | AIGLE D`OR | 10-0 | 160.5 | 20/1 Paddy Power |
| 3 | CHAPOTURGEON(FR) | 11-7 | 155 | 14/1 Blue Square |
| 8 | JAYO(FR) | 10-11 | 152 | 18/1 Paddy Power |
| 10 | TAROTINO(FR) | 10-11 | 150.5 | 20/1 StanJames |
| 5 | MADE IN TAIPAN(IRE) | 11-4 | 149.5 | 33/1 Totesport |
| 2 | GWANAKO(FR) | 11-8 | 129 | 25/1 Bet365 |
| 19 | I`M SO LUCKY | 10-4 | 127 | 12/1 Bet365 |
| 15 | SONG OF SONGS | 10-7 | 118.5 | 9/1 Sporting Bet |
| 7 | MY PETRA | 10-12 | 107.5 | 20/1 Totesport |
Byrne Group Plate Tips and Ratings Review:
Two long priced horses appeal at these weights in this massive field handicap chase: VICTORIAS GROOM and CHANGING COURSE could well make the frame for good each-way money. We also suggest the well fancied WATCH MY BACK as another you might want to place into your Placepot and other multiple permutations too – a small each-way on that one could provide a positive outcome here. At the other end of the ratings, MY PETRA looks out of its depth, and SONG OF SONGS seems too short a price based on our appraisal of its form to date – a small amount risked on each in the win only market seems a good option for layers.
Who to Back
VICTORIAS GROOM, CHANGING COURSE and WATCH MY BACK should all be backed each way with one of the few bookmakers paying out on 5 places in this event (Bet365, Paddy Power, Blue Square, 888Sport)
Who to Lay
Lay MY PETRA and SONG OF SONGS – split your usual max liability between the two horses.
4:40 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase) (Amateur Riders) – 3m1f110y
The amateur riders get another opportunity to battle it out at the Festival here, this time in another long distance handicap chase – expect some hustle and bustle in this race.
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Plate Runners, Form, Ratings and Best Odds:
| No. | Name | Weight | Systemlays Rating | Best Odds |
| 1 | BALLABRIGGS(IRE) | 11-12 | 195.5 | 7/1 888Sport |
| 22 | LYSANDER(GER) | 11-2 | 191.5 | 28/1 Bet365 |
| 20 | BUCK THE LEGEND(IRE) | 11-2 | 186 | 28/1 Coral |
| 9 | SAPHIR DES BOIS(FR) | 11-7 | 186 | 25/1 Bet365 |
| 21 | I`MONCLOUDNINE(IRE) | 11-2 | 183 | 16/1 Bet365 |
| 24 | BURREN LEGEND(IRE) | 10-13 | 181.5 | 66/1 Ladbrokes |
| 14 | ZITENKA(IRE) | 11-4 | 180.5 | 33/1 Bet365 |
| 23 | MA YAHAB | 11-1 | 179.5 | 25/1 Totesport |
| 11 | BOYCHUK(IRE) | 11-6 | 179 | 20/1 Betfred |
| 12 | GALANT NUIT(FR) | 11-5 | 177.5 | 9/1 Bet365 |
| 13 | OODACHEE | 11-5 | 177 | 40/1 Ladbrokes |
| 16 | MR ROBERT(IRE) | 11-3 | 176.5 | 50/1 Bet365 |
| 15 | HEATHCLIFF(IRE) | 11-4 | 168.5 | 22/1 Coral |
| 3 | FALTERING FULLBACK | 11-9 | 155 | 20/1 Ladbrokes |
| 8 | FAASEL(IRE) | 11-7 | 152.5 | 28/1 Bet365 |
| 17 | KIA KAHA | 11-2 | 152 | 25/1 Boylesports |
| 7 | KHACHATURIAN(IRE) | 11-7 | 149.5 | 16/1 Bet365 |
| 6 | NOSTRINGSATTACHED(IRE) | 11-8 | 149.5 | 12/1 Paddy Power |
| 19 | ISN`T THAT LUCKY | 11-2 | 143 | 14/1 Bet365 |
| 18 | FREDS BENEFIT(IRE) | 11-2 | 141 | 50/1 Totesport |
| 5 | FINGER ONTHE PULSE(IRE) | 11-9 | 133.5 | 16/1 Ladbrokes |
| 10 | SHILLINGSTONE | 11-6 | 131 | 8/1 Bet365 |
| 4 | HELLO BUD(IRE) | 11-9 | 118.5 | 28/1 Bet365 |
| 2 | PARSONS LEGACY(IRE) | 11-11 | 114 | 50/1 Boylesports |
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Plate Tips and Ratings Review:
We think that the early favourite, BALLABRIGGS has what it takes to lift this race, though, since Bet365 are paying 5 places on this even too (the only bookie which is as far as we know) you may also want to have a look at an each-way bet on either LYSANDER, BUCK THE LEGEND or SAPHIR DE BOIS as well. We recommend just the one, reasonable, each-way bet this time. SHILLINGSTONE looks to be opposable at the early price too, but don’t risk more than 50% of your usual liability on this one, particularly given the amateur riders adding that extra element of chance.
Who to Back
BALLABRIGGS – each way with Bet365
Who to Lay
SHILLINGSTONE – half your usual liability
Nap of the Day
You’ll have to wait until the very last race of day three at Cheltenham for our best bet of the day: if BALLABRIGGS gets a clear round, the horse should be returning at least place money to each-way backers. At 6/1 on Bet365 with 1/4 the odds for places 2,3,4 and 5, this is an excellent percentages play to end the day on a high. TIDAL BAY in the World Hurdle is our NB, but we are cautious owing to the imponderable reserves of BIG BUCK’S – from what we’ve seen on course, TIDAL BAY edges this match bet, and that’s why we suggest the odds are in our favour here, with BIG BUCK’S expected only to shorten in price.














Twitter
RSS
Leave a Reply