Cheltenham Festival Tips – Day Three – World Hurdle Day

The second day of Cheltenham Festival 2010 was considerably less fun than the first for us – largely due to the underachievement of MASTER MINDED in the Queen Mother Chase, though we still managed to land a 50-1+ reverse forecast in the second race which brought a smile to many of the smaller stakes guys faces!

Today should see things get back on more of an even keel, however, as there is plenty more high quality racing to be enjoyed from Cheltenham.

As with the previous two days, the tips below are not to be used in line with our daily backing and laying tips – they are simple additional tips for those of us who enjoy betting on Cheltenham Festival races, and to provide you with an insight into what we do, day-in, day-out, for every horse race in the UK and Ireland, every day, for free.

We recommend you set a small limit for each race, and stick to it.

For Cheltenham Festival 2010 Day Three, we’ll be tipping selections in every race, and sorting the horses in order of our ratings to aid you with your betting decisions. Click the links below to jump straight to the race you are looking for, or simply scroll down the page below:

  1. 1:30  – Jewson Novices´ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 2m5f
  2. 2:05 – Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) – 3m
  3. 2:40 – Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Steeple Chase) – 2m5f
  4. 3:20 – Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 – 3m
  5. 4:00 – Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) Grade 3 – 2m5f
  6. 4:40 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase) (Amateur Riders) – 3m1f110y

1:30  – Jewson Novices´ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 2m5f

Another novice handicap chase to get the third day started.

Jewson Novices´ Handicap Chase Runners, Form, Ratings and Best Odds:

No. Name Weight Systemlays Rating Best Odds
17 RIVALISTE(FR) 10-13 203.5 7/1 Bet365
18 GANSEY(IRE) 10-13 200.5 20/1 Sky Bet
19 TANKS FOR THAT(IRE) 10-11 193.5 25/1 Ladbrokes
15 THE HOLLINWELL 11-0 191 9/1 Coral
6 FIENDISH FLAME(IRE) 11-4 191 28/1 Coral
2 SEVEN IS MY NUMBER(IRE) 11-9 189.5 33/1 Blue Square
16 WORKING TITLE(IRE) 10-13 188 28/1 Sky Bet
11 DOOR BOY(IRE) 11-1 187 25/1 Victor Chandler
4 LENABANE(IRE) 11-6 184.5 20/1 Bet365
20 KING`S FOREST(IRE) 10-11 182 20/1 Bet365
5 JERED(IRE) 11-4 172.5 14/1 Bet365
13 DAVE`S DREAM(IRE) 11-0 171 12/1 Totesport
1 TAKE THE BREEZE(FR) 11-10 170 40/1 Sporting Bet
3 HEY BIG SPENDER(IRE) 11-8 163.5 10/1 Bet365
9 AWESOME GEORGE 11-2 163.5 33/1 Sporting Bet
10 COPPER BLEU(IRE) 11-1 163 14/1 Bet365
7 CHINA ROCK(IRE) 11-3 162 10/1 Ladbrokes
8 NICANOR(FR) 11-2 150 14/1 Bet365
14 OTHERMIX(FR) 11-0 148 50/1 Bet365
12 THE MIDNIGHT CLUB(IRE) 11-1 143 20/1 Bet365

Jewson Novices´ Handicap Chase Tips and Ratings Review:

The market agrees with our take on this race: RIVALISTE appears the most likely winner of this handicap chase, though we put it pretty close to GANSEY whom we suggest as an each-way chance that could well make the frame in yet another 4 place paying Cheltenham Festival handicap event.

Who to Back

Back RIVALISTE and GANSEY, both each-way. Consider a minimum stake reverse forecast on the two.

Who to Lay

We will be laying THE MIDNIGHT CLUB, but the price will be prohibitive for many – unless playing in the dangerous place market.

2:05 – Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) – 3m

One of the biggest handicap hurdle events of the year – and one of the toughest, over three miles of undulating Gloucestershire.

Pertemps Final Runners, Form, Ratings and Best Odds:

No. Name Weight Systemlays Rating Best Odds
3 TRENCHANT 11-6 203 25/1 Sky Bet
13 SMOKING ACES(IRE) 10-6 201.5 11/1 Bet365
5 ALFIE SHERRIN 11-1 201.5 7/2 Totesport
15 BOULAVOGUE(IRE) 10-5 199.5 33/1 Bet365
10 PRINCE ERIK 10-8 199.5 12/1 Totesport
22 MAUCAILLOU(GER) 10-3 196.5 25/1 Bet365
8 TIME ELECTRIC(IRE) 10-9 193 20/1 Bet365
14 FREDO(IRE) 10-5 191.5 18/1 Totesport
4 KAYF ARAMIS 11-6 189.5 25/1 Totesport
20 ROCCO`S HALL(IRE) 10-3 188 33/1 Bet365
18 BUENA VISTA(IRE) 10-4 183.5 22/1 Sporting Bet
21 CROSS KENNON(IRE) 10-3 183 25/1 Sky Bet
17 COLLEGE DAISY(IRE) 10-4 182.5 40/1 Sporting Bet
12 SOUTH O`THE BORDER 10-6 179.5 40/1 Victor Chandler
9 MONTANA SLIM(IRE) 10-9 177.5 66/1 Sporting Bet
1 MR THRILLER(FR) 11-12 174 33/1 Bet365
11 ERZEN(IRE) 10-6 173 28/1 Totesport
23 SILK AFFAIR(IRE) 10-2 172.5 25/1 Sporting Bet
2 BALLYFITZ 11-8 163 33/1 Sporting Bet
19 CHAMIREY(FR) 10-4 162 33/1 Ladbrokes
16 PALYPSO DE CREEK(FR) 10-5 159.5 33/1 Ladbrokes
7 AINAMA(IRE) 10-10 154 8/1 Ladbrokes
6 DON`T PUSH IT(IRE) 11-0 152 22/1 Sporting Bet
24 SPECIAL OCCASION 10-2 130 40/1 Sporting Bet

Pertemps Final Tips and Ratings Review:

There are three horses which stand slightly ahead of the field in this Listed handicap hurdle: TRENCHANT, SMOKING ACES and ALFIE SHERRIN – we suggest you back each of these three with a very small each-way bet with another 4 (or 5 with Bet365) places to aim for.

Who to Back

TRENCHANT, SMOKING ACES and ALFIE SHERRIN each-way should pay dividends.

Who to Lay

Lay AINAMA to half of your usual liability here, if the price remains under 11.0 on Betfair.

2:40 – Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Steeple Chase) – 2m5f

The Ryanair Chase always produces an excellent crop of chasers who are either on their way up, or who have taken a step down from the very top of the chasing tree. Either way, it is a fascinating battle of wits over the gruelling two miles and five furlongs.

Ryanair Chase Runners, Form, Ratings and Best Odds:

No. Name Weight Systemlays Rating Best Odds
13 J`Y VOLE(FR) 11-3 189 20/1 Sporting Bet
4 DEEP PURPLE 11-10 187.5 25/1 Totesport
3 BARKER(IRE) 11-10 184 33/1 Betfred
5 JACK THE GIANT(IRE) 11-10 180.5 33/1 Paddy Power
10 SCOTSIRISH(IRE) 11-10 179.5 28/1 Bet365
11 TRANQUIL SEA(IRE) 11-10 173 9/2 Sporting Bet
12 VOY POR USTEDES(FR) 11-10 170.5 16/1 Bet365
8 POQUELIN(FR) 11-10 169 7/2 Boylesports
1 ALBERTAS RUN(IRE) 11-10 167.5 16/1 Bet365
9 SCHINDLERS HUNT(IRE) 11-10 164.5 12/1 Sporting Bet
2 BARBERS SHOP 11-10 156.5 6/1 Sky Bet
6 PETIT ROBIN(FR) 11-10 156 16/1 Ladbrokes
7 PLANET OF SOUND 11-10 155 14/1 Totesport

Ryanair Chase Tips and Ratings Review:

We’ve got this field grouped very closely, based on recent performances, so the tentative suggestion is to take a small bit of Sporting Bet‘s 20-1 on J’Y VOLE. Layers should be looking at the bottom three horses on our ratings, but note that the spread between top and bottom is very low, so it would not be unlikely that one from the bottom half could take this race. With that in mind, we suggest capping your risk to 25% of your ordinary lay liability – and if this means avoiding the race, then so be it.

Who to Back

J’Y VOLE – minimum each-way

Who to Lay

PLANET OF SOUND

3:20 – Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 – 3m

The World Hurdle is one of our favourite events of any Festival – not least because of the great performances in recent years by horses like Barracouda (horses with that level of consistency make ratings really work for you) – and this year’s is sure to be no different.

World Hurdle Runners, Form, Ratings and Best Odds:

No. Name Weight Systemlays Rating Best Odds
12 TIDAL BAY(IRE) 11-10 195 15/2 Paddy Power
6 KARABAK(FR) 11-10 186.5 9/1 Ladbrokes
5 FAIR ALONG(GER) 11-10 182 100/1 Ladbrokes
1 BIG BUCK`S(FR) 11-10 181 8/11 Sporting Bet
11 SENTRY DUTY(FR) 11-10 178 14/1 Sky Bet
13 TIME FOR RUPERT(IRE) 11-10 175.5 20/1 Bet365
4 EBADIYAN(IRE) 11-10 174 100/1 Totesport
9 OSCAR DAN DAN(IRE) 11-10 173.5 100/1 Bet365
7 KATCHIT(IRE) 11-10 173 20/1 Bet365
3 COUSIN VINNY(IRE) 11-10 171 33/1 Totesport
10 POWERSTATION(IRE) 11-10 164.5 40/1 Bet365
14 WAR OF ATTRITION(IRE) 11-10 160 40/1 Coral
8 LIE FORRIT(IRE) 11-10 157.5 50/1 Bet365
2 CAPE TRIBULATION 11-10 150.5 80/1 Totesport

World Hurdle Tips and Ratings Review:

An interesting conundrum is posed here by our preference for TIDAL BAY based on his performance last time out suggesting he is good enough to get the better of BIG BUCK’S under today’s conditions. BIG BUCK’S is a horse we laid unsuccessfully in last year’s Festival. Ordinarily, we would say BIG BUCK’S is too close to the top of our ratings – something that is always dangerous from horses which have won readily as this one has (owing to the fact that the time is not as fast as it might be were the race more of a test) – to be considered a worthwhile lay. And, quite rightly, we would not suggest laying this horse for high liabilities, as, statistically, we’d expect BIG BUCKS to win this race something like 25% of the time. Therefore, at this price, the prospect becomes worthy of consideration: is it odds against that BIG BUCK’S will not win this race? Not in our opinion, BIG BUCK’S should be a 4-1 shot (1/4 that he loses). We suggest backing TIDAL BAY each-way, and covering that total stake with a win only market lay of BIG BUCK’S – keep the stakes small, however, as this is a bet with a higher risk factor than we would ordinarily advise (we would not touch this race were it not the Festival). Only lay BIG BUCK’S if the price remains odds-on.

Who to Back

TIDAL BAY, each-way

Who to Lay

BIG BUCK’S – keep stakes low (see above)

4:00 – Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) Grade 3 – 2m5f

Another tough chase handicap here – below is our appraisal.

Byrne Group Plate Runners, Form, Ratings and Best Odds:

No. Name Weight Systemlays Rating Best Odds
22 VICTORIAS GROOM(GER) 10-1 204.5 50/1 Totesport
23 CHANGING COURSE(IRE) 10-1 202.5 50/1 Ladbrokes
14 KNIGHT LEGEND(IRE) 10-8 197 66/1 Blue Square
9 WATCH MY BACK 10-11 195 8/1 Bet365
18 GREAT ENDEAVOUR(IRE) 10-4 193 25/1 Sporting Bet
21 FROM DAWN TO DUSK 10-3 188 25/1 Bet365
12 ATOUCHBETWEENACARA(IRE) 10-10 185.5 14/1 Betfred
20 SUNNYHILLBOY(IRE) 10-3 181 9/1 Ladbrokes
1 OUR VIC(IRE) 11-12 180 40/1 Sky Bet
16 PRIVATE BE 10-6 173 25/1 Totesport
4 IN COMPLIANCE(IRE) 11-4 171 20/1 Sporting Bet
13 MOUNT OSCAR(IRE) 10-8 170.5 40/1 Coral
6 THE SAWYER(BEL) 11-3 169.5 22/1 StanJames
17 MARTYS MISSION(IRE) 10-4 168 33/1 Ladbrokes
11 MISTER MCGOLDRICK 10-11 167 40/1 Ladbrokes
24 AIGLE D`OR 10-0 160.5 20/1 Paddy Power
3 CHAPOTURGEON(FR) 11-7 155 14/1 Blue Square
8 JAYO(FR) 10-11 152 18/1 Paddy Power
10 TAROTINO(FR) 10-11 150.5 20/1 StanJames
5 MADE IN TAIPAN(IRE) 11-4 149.5 33/1 Totesport
2 GWANAKO(FR) 11-8 129 25/1 Bet365
19 I`M SO LUCKY 10-4 127 12/1 Bet365
15 SONG OF SONGS 10-7 118.5 9/1 Sporting Bet
7 MY PETRA 10-12 107.5 20/1 Totesport

Byrne Group Plate Tips and Ratings Review:

Two long priced horses appeal at these weights in this massive field handicap chase: VICTORIAS GROOM and CHANGING COURSE could well make the frame for good each-way money. We also suggest the well fancied WATCH MY BACK as another you might want to place into your Placepot and other multiple permutations too – a small each-way on that one could provide a positive outcome here. At the other end of the ratings, MY PETRA looks out of its depth, and SONG OF SONGS seems too short a price based on our appraisal of its form to date – a small amount risked on each in the win only market seems a good option for layers.

Who to Back

VICTORIAS GROOM, CHANGING COURSE and WATCH MY BACK should all be backed each way with one of the few bookmakers paying out on 5 places in this event (Bet365, Paddy Power, Blue Square, 888Sport)

Who to Lay

Lay MY PETRA and SONG OF SONGS – split your usual max liability between the two horses.

4:40 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase) (Amateur Riders) – 3m1f110y

The amateur riders get another opportunity to battle it out at the Festival here, this time in another long distance handicap chase – expect some hustle and bustle in this race.

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Plate Runners, Form, Ratings and Best Odds:

No. Name Weight Systemlays Rating Best Odds
1 BALLABRIGGS(IRE) 11-12 195.5 7/1 888Sport
22 LYSANDER(GER) 11-2 191.5 28/1 Bet365
20 BUCK THE LEGEND(IRE) 11-2 186 28/1 Coral
9 SAPHIR DES BOIS(FR) 11-7 186 25/1 Bet365
21 I`MONCLOUDNINE(IRE) 11-2 183 16/1 Bet365
24 BURREN LEGEND(IRE) 10-13 181.5 66/1 Ladbrokes
14 ZITENKA(IRE) 11-4 180.5 33/1 Bet365
23 MA YAHAB 11-1 179.5 25/1 Totesport
11 BOYCHUK(IRE) 11-6 179 20/1 Betfred
12 GALANT NUIT(FR) 11-5 177.5 9/1 Bet365
13 OODACHEE 11-5 177 40/1 Ladbrokes
16 MR ROBERT(IRE) 11-3 176.5 50/1 Bet365
15 HEATHCLIFF(IRE) 11-4 168.5 22/1 Coral
3 FALTERING FULLBACK 11-9 155 20/1 Ladbrokes
8 FAASEL(IRE) 11-7 152.5 28/1 Bet365
17 KIA KAHA 11-2 152 25/1 Boylesports
7 KHACHATURIAN(IRE) 11-7 149.5 16/1 Bet365
6 NOSTRINGSATTACHED(IRE) 11-8 149.5 12/1 Paddy Power
19 ISN`T THAT LUCKY 11-2 143 14/1 Bet365
18 FREDS BENEFIT(IRE) 11-2 141 50/1 Totesport
5 FINGER ONTHE PULSE(IRE) 11-9 133.5 16/1 Ladbrokes
10 SHILLINGSTONE 11-6 131 8/1 Bet365
4 HELLO BUD(IRE) 11-9 118.5 28/1 Bet365
2 PARSONS LEGACY(IRE) 11-11 114 50/1 Boylesports

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Plate Tips and Ratings Review:

We think that the early favourite, BALLABRIGGS has what it takes to lift this race, though, since Bet365 are paying 5 places on this even too (the only bookie which is as far as we know) you may also want to have a look at an each-way bet on either LYSANDER, BUCK THE LEGEND or SAPHIR DE BOIS as well. We recommend just the one, reasonable, each-way bet this time. SHILLINGSTONE looks to be opposable at the early price too, but don’t risk more than 50% of your usual liability on this one, particularly given the amateur riders adding that extra element of chance.

Who to Back

BALLABRIGGS – each way with Bet365

Who to Lay

SHILLINGSTONE – half your usual liability

Nap of the Day

You’ll have to wait until the very last race of day three at Cheltenham for our best bet of the day: if BALLABRIGGS gets a clear round, the horse should be returning at least place money to each-way backers. At 6/1 on Bet365 with 1/4 the odds for places 2,3,4 and 5, this is an excellent percentages play to end the day on a high. TIDAL BAY in the World Hurdle is our NB, but we are cautious owing to the imponderable reserves of BIG BUCK’S – from what we’ve seen on course, TIDAL BAY edges this match bet, and that’s why we suggest the odds are in our favour here, with BIG BUCK’S expected only to shorten in price.

About the Author

Hi, I'm the System Tipster. Not an actual real individual per se, I am actually a highly developed computer program designed to handicap and rate every racehorse in Britain and Ireland by the owners of Systemlays UK. I crunch numbers all day long to produce highly consistent horse racing backing tips and laying tips which can be viewed for free every day of the week (except most Sundays). Subscribe to my RSS feed for free and never miss a tip!

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