It’s Derby Day!

Those of you who are heading to Epsom Downs for the 2009 Derby meeting, and those of you who will be watching it on television (BBC 1 for UK viewers), will surely be keen to know where Systemlays’ ratings place this year’s crop of the finest three year olds in the business.

This year’s Epsom Derby starts at 3:45pm.

Systemlays Derby 2009 Top Rated

The top rated horses are those which have put down the best performances on the clock, in races which indicate ability over today’s course and distance. They are therefore suggested as the most likely winners of the 2009 Epsom Derby:

1. Black Bear Island
2. Golden Sword
3. Kite Wood

Black Bear Island, at 9-1, offers excellent value, and is one of Aiden O’Brians six strong assault on this year’s Derby. Ryan Moore, one of the best in the business, is an able companion to this high class son of Sadler’s Wells. Either of the horse’s last two wins were good enough to put him at the head of this field, but last time at York also indicated this trip will be no problem.

The same stable saddles Golden Sword a horse which, at 33-1 (Bet365), doesn’t have many friends in the market, however, last time out, at Chester, in the Chester Vase (an excellent derby trial being over the same distance) he put down a cracking time due, in part, to the fact the horse was probably meant to be acting as a pacemaker. He stayed the trip well, and won cosily by 2 lengths. The same is possible today. Certainly, this horse should be able to power right through to the line, and may well make a good each-way investment as a result. A win is possible and, at the price, a small wager doesn’t seem like a crazy idea.

The third choice is Godolphin’s Kite Wood which is terrifically well bred (by Galileo, out of Mark of Esteem mare, Kite Mark) and, though beaten into fifth place by our first choice horse at York, if we forgive that performance, has put down an excellent marker over a mile on his second start, in a Doncaster maiden. The horse was green that day, but still put down an excellent time on the books. He shaped as though he would stay, and is bred to. With only a two lengths to find on Black Bear Island, over two furlongs further this time, we feel that 33-1 (Totesport) is too long a price. Frankie Dettori will give a good ride, as ever, which will make the each-way money seem worthwhile. A win for this one would not surprise us.

We also rank 2,000 Guineas winner, Sea The Stars as next best, and this favourite to do the classic double has to be considered for those multi-bets (like the Tote Placepot and Jackpots a lot of you will be doing): he should feature prominently in proceedings.

Who To Lay in The Derby 2009

Age of Aquarius just narrowly won the Lingfield Derby Trial by a neck in a poor time, and has shown nothing on track which suggests he is anything but second string for his stable here today. On our books, this horse is the best opportunity to lay on Betfair, though the price will put many off: current odds are 24.0.

What are we Betting?

Our main bet is a lay of Age of Aquarius, though, as the horses don’t meet our usual “back” criteria, we’ll be having just small bets on the 2009 Derby. Three equal staked each-way bets on our top three rated horses, Black Bear Island, Golden Sword and Kite Wood, will hopefully see a return, and, for tiny stakes we’ll be having a Tote Trifecta and a combination Tote Exacta on the three horses too. You could do worse than follow those bets with us (a Tote Exacta is essentially a reverse forecast – click here for the explanation).

Whatever you do, enjoy today’s Derby!