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05.04.2011 in , , by System Tipster 1

Grand National 2011 Trends – A look at the criteria of a Grand National Winner

For those of you who like to follow the trends and here at Systemlays we certainly do, we have pulled out all the horses which fit the major winning trends over the history of the Grand National.

The crieria we have used is as follows:

1) Don’t Push It is removed as only one top weight horse has won since 1936 and that was Red Rum! RUNNERS LEFT 43
2) Any horse weight less than 10 stone 4lbs and any horse weighing more than 11 stone 5lbs (15 of the last 20 winners have come in the 10-4 and 10-12 range but the last two winners have been over 11 stone, so we are leaving some room for the trend to be heading towards the higher weights – RUNNERS LEFT 26
3) Now we can remove the remaining grey runner, Silver By Nature. Only Two grey horses have won the Grand National so that is good enough reason for us to strike them from the list – RUNNERS LEFT 25
4) Age is another imporant factor, with all by 3 winners going to those in the 9-12 aged range. And in particular the age 9-10 is sweet spot with 12 of the last 15 and all of the last 6 going to this age group. This allows us to get rid of another 6 runners by keeping the 9-12′s on side – RUNNERS LEFT 19
5) Next we will remove Oscar Time which is set to be ridden by Gold Cup winning rider Sam Walley-Cohen, Walley-Cohen is not only trying to become the first Gold Cup/National double winner since 2002, but also the first amateur winner since 1990. We wish him luck but thats enough for us to striking him off the list. – RUNNERS LEFT 18
6) Lastly we will remove those with odds currently over 16/1 as 15 of the last 20 winners have been priced between 7/1 and 16/1 (As the odds could change some what, we have included our full list of 18 at the bottom of the post so you can review on the day) – RUNNERS LEFT 5

So after applying 6 simple but clear trends we have been able to whittle a list 40 runners plus 4 emergencies down to a list of 5 strong fancies. Simply by back all of them each way you would have turned a profit in most years. The Top 5 runners are:

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Drum roll please…

The Midnight Club - 10 – 10-13
Backstage – 9 – 10-12
Ballabriggs – 10 – 11-0
Big Fella Thanks – 9 – 11-1
Niche Market – 10 – 10-13

You wouldn’t go far simply by back these but stay tuned as on the evening of the race we will have our full preview with our best tips for the race. In the lead up to this we will be providing regular posts on the latest news, market moves and free bet offers so keep checking back. We provide free horse racing selections every day. Subscribe to our latest tips by email for free, and you’ll get the latest additions to this site delivered to your inbox by Google Feedburner.

As promised, here is the full list of selections. Just check the odds on the day and remove any that are below 7/1 or above 16/1

The Midnight Club – 10 – 10-13
Backstage – 9 – 10-12
Ballabriggs – 10 – 11-0
Big Fella Thanks – 9 – 11-1
Niche Market – 10 – 10-13
State of Play – 11 – 10-6
Ballytrim – 10 – 10-8
Bluesea Cracker – 9 – 10-4
Notre Pere – 10 – 10-11
West End Rocker – 9 – 10-5
Chief Dan George – 11 – 10-12
In Compliance – 11 – 10-5
Cant Buy Time – 9 – 10-4
Comply or Die – 12 – 10-8
Northern Alliance - 10 – 10-8
Or Noir De Somoza – 9 – 11-5
The Tother One – 10 – 11-0
Killyglen - 9 – 10-10

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