Systemlays - Free Sports Betting Tips

We’ve spent a long while, since the John Smiths Grand National Handicap for 2009 was announced on Thursday, running the 40 horses (plus the 4 reserves) through our computerised ratings systems in order to provide you once more with a comprehensive guide to every runner in the Grand National 0f 2009 and how we view its chances.

We’ve run each horse through the same filters as we do ordinarily for every race in the calendar, but also we’ve hand selected each horses best ever comparable form to come up with a second set of ratings – this is particularly useful as several Grand National entries go over hurdles to retain a lower chasing handicap mark.

Finally we’ve taken those two ratings and averaged them out. You can see all of that detail, plus the bookmakers current best price (as at Saturday 4th April 2009 at around 5am) in the table below. For our conclusions, and the detailed run through of the field for Grand National 2009, as well as our betting tips for the big race, scroll down to the bottom of this page.

If there is anything further you’d like to know, just ask a question in the comments section!

Grand National 2009 Card, Colours and Systemlays Ratings Table

In the table below, S.R. = Systemlays Rating, B.E.R. = Best Ever Rating and Ave. = the average of those two figures.

Prices are to 1 unit stake e.g. 33 = 33/1 – clicking any price will take you to the bookmaker’s website in a new window.

	Colours	Name	Form	Wgt	S.R.	B.E.R	Ave.
1		CLOUDY LANE	-9431F	11-10	177.5	177.5	177.5	33	40	40		40	74
2		CHELSEA HARBOUR(IRE)	U1F234	11-8	184	184	184	66	80	66		66	159
3		SNOWY MORNING(IRE)	2-56F2	11-8	166.5	193	179.8	25	25	28		28	49
4		KNOWHERE(IRE)	UP-180	11-7	172.5	172.5	172.5	40	50	50		66	84
5		COMPLY OR DIE(IRE)	11-P07	11-6	184	184	184	14	16	12		16	20
6		OLLIE MAGERN	25558	11-6	183	191.5	187.3	66	100	100		100	179
7		STAN(NZ)	51P04P	11-6	155	192.5	173.8	100	100	100		100	189
8		BLACK APALACHI(IRE)	2-P151	11-5	179	179	179	14	14	14		14	17
9		HEAR THE ECHO(IRE)	1-556U	11-5	162	170.5	166.3	16	16	14		16	31
10		PREISTS LEAP(IRE)	7-7F19	11-5	151	175	163	80	66	100		80	179
11		MY WILL(FR)	023/55	11-4	192	192	192	7	7	8		7.5	10
12		EUROTREK(IRE)	1P/1P	11-3	153	204.5	178.8	66	66	100		100	209
13		STATE OF PLAY	560-14	11-2	186.5	199.5	193	12	14	12		12	15
14		BIG FELLA THANKS	322U13	11-1	156	203.5	179.8	20	22	20		22	24
15		MON MOME(FR)	218278	11-0	170	199.5	184.8	66	66	100		80	179
16		SILVER BIRCH(IRE)	2421/9	11-0	181.5	181.5	181.5	50	50	50		66	94
17		BUTLER`S CABIN(FR)	F-8085	10-13	121	204	162.5	7	8	9		8	8.8
18		OFFSHORE ACCOUNT(IRE)	1/U2-2	10-13	179	179	179	20	22	33		28	29
19		PARSONS LEGACY(IRE)	/54-1P	10-12	180.5	205.5	193	16	18	16		16	19
20		REVEILLEZ	612/P0	10-12	190.5	198.5	194.5	100	100	150		100	269
21		FUNDAMENTALIST(IRE)	146P6P	10-11	146.5	186	166.3	200	150	150		150	329
22		GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR)	33/3-0	10-11	169.5	193.5	181.5	50	50	66		66	99
23		L`AMI(FR)	8-4212	10-11	155.5	192.5	174	20	22	25		20	26
24		BATTLECRY	2-245P	10-10	158.5	195	176.8	33	40	50		40	45
25		CORNISH SETT(IRE)	0-F128	10-10	205	205	205	28	33	25		33	45
26		FLEET STREET	2-P610	10-10	148	196	172	100	150	150		100	309
27		MUSICA BELLA	222187	10-10	150	150	150	150	150	150		150	249
28		CAN`T BUY TIME(IRE)	111314	10-9	173	186	179.5	40	40	50		50	64
29		DARKNESS	3P/3P1	10-9	186	186	186	16	18	20		18	19
30		IRISH INVADER(IRE)	323111	10-9	203	203	203	16	20	20		20	26
31		RAMBLING MINSTER	-56511	10-9	170	182	176	10	10	10		10	11
32		SOUTHERN VIC(IRE)	06U343	10-9	196.5	196.5	196.5	25	25	28		25	37
33		KILBEGGAN BLADE	P-1112	10-7	174	209.5	191.8	16	20	20		18	23
34		BROOKLYN BROWNIE(IRE)	124921	10-6	168.5	197	182.8	25	28	28		28	39
35		HIMALAYAN TRAIL	P584P0	10-6	110.5	189	149.8	25	33	28		28	35
36		ARTEEA(IRE)	8017-0	10-5	145	158	151.5	200	200	250		250	569
37		CERIUM(FR)	59PP-0	10-5	130.5	187.5	159	200	250	500		500	629
38		IDLE TALK(IRE)	0-2473	10-5	152.5	186.5	169.5	40	66	50		50	84
39		KELAMI(FR)	U6-P70	10-5	143.5	198	170.8	150	250	200		150	519
40		ZABENZ(NZ)	232P5/	10-5	184	184	184	66	100	100		100	299

Grand National 2009 Preview and Systemlays Tips

Top 6 Grand National 2009 Horses on Systemlays ordinary Ratings:

1. Cornish Sett
2. Irish Invader
3. Southern Vic
4. My Will
5. Reveillez
6. State Of Play

These ratings are based upon the best recent chasing performance adjusted to today’s conditions.

Top 6 Grand National 2009 Horses on Best Ever Systemlays Ratings:

1. Kilbeggan Blade
2. Parsons Legacy
3. Cornish Sett
4. Eurotrek
5. Butler’s Cabin
6. Big Fella Thanks

Top 10 on Rating Average:

1. Cornish Sett
2. Irish Invader
3. Southern Vic
4. Reveillez
5. Parsons Legacy
6. State of Play
7. My Will
8. Kilbeggan Blade
9. Ollie Magern
10. Darkness

Grand National 2009 Preview and Tips – Each Way Tips

While there has been a lot of support for Butler’s Cabin over the past day or so, its still a toss up between JP McManus’ horse and the P F Nicholls trained My Will for Grand National 2009 favouritism. As you can see from the above, we hold both horses in high regard. However, Butler’s Cabin is, of the two, preferred for his best ever performance (albeit that took place in January 2006) and the fact that he is carrying a not insignificant 5 lbs less weight.

Cornish Sett is a horse who looks really well in based on his solid performances this season over 3m5f+ – a weight of 10-10 is certainly a winning mark if this horse can get round intact – at 10, its probably now or never time for the horse too. Odds of 33/1 (45 on Betfair) are more than tempting – a solid each-way chance here, and one which we cannot pass up.

Kilbeggan Blade has been aimed at this race for a long time. His connections have been running the horse over hurdles – in which he’s looked like the real deal – in order to keep the weight down today. That has worked and Kilbeggan Blade is only carrying 10-7, a super light weight. This horse should be very close providing he gets a clear run and stays upright. This is a horse who has also made the frame over 4 miles or more, and his jumping generally stands up to scrutiny, so we can be reasonably assured of a run for our money. Another solid each-way chance.

Irish Invader has some of the best actual form going into this race of any today: his win at Leopardstown in December was particularly special, and he has a level of consistency that many of today’s rivals would do well to match. However, and this is a big ‘but’, the horse has never gone more than 3 miles successfully, so it remains to be seen if this supreme test of stamina won’t be too much. That said, other than the imponderable and untried, this horse has bags of class and no shortage of speed endurance over 2m-2m4f, therefore, the gamble is cut out. 20/1 may be a little short under the circumstances, but this is worth a little each-way saver at the very least.

We tipped State of Play to win at this meeting a couple of years ago over these large fences, and really, since then, he’s only put in one performance near that mark. As a result, and the fact his jumping seems to have gone slightly awry (he has hit a lot of fences since that day) we pass over State of Play this year, particularly at these restrictive odds – the handicapper has not been kind either.

Ollie Magern is a very consistent sort who often finds a few too good at the business end of races. It is reasonably likely he’ll still be there at the finish line, but if 7 or 8 others are still standing, expect them to be in front of Ollie Magern.

Southern Vic is third in our average ratings and is suggested as a good potential each-way chance for this year’s National, with a nice low weight and a price which allows for a more speculative bet.

Reveillez may be a long price, but whenever he’s travelled an extended trip over 3 miles and 5f, he has performed well, and put down good times. Today he’s weighted to go very well. Jumping may be his downfall, and its highly probable he’ll be outclassed at the end should one or two others stand up.

Two years ago, we’d have tipped Eurotrek as a good chance here – he was last seen in this race in ’07 when he pulled up. At 13 years old, however, and not having seen the race track for a couple of years, its is more difficult to assess what ability the horse retains. At 100/1 or higher, though, £1 each-way would make a lovely story should the horse manage to roll back the years – he has the best performance over 3 miles plus of any of these based on our ratings. The race may come a couple of years too late, however. Interesting.

Big Fella Thanks is the last of the horses which we’d advise having a couple of quid each-way on in Grand National 2009 – if he reproduces his best ever efforts, he should make the top 5 or 6 at the shakeup. Remember Boylesports are offering 6 places on this race – though the prices are often better with other bookies.

We can’t tip this many horses, though, so if we have to narrow it down to three, we’ll take:

1. Cornish Sett
2. Irish Invader
3. Kilbeggan Blade

Best of luck with your own Grand National selections

Grand National 2009 – Who to Lay?

Laying any horse which has shown ability in the Grand National has to be a dangerous game, so we suggest you lay only from the following select group (though don’t expect a short price):

• Himalayan Trail
• Arteea
• Cerium
• Preists Leap