Grand National Handicap Steeplechase – Statistics 2008

STARTING PRICES

betting at the racecourseDue to the size and competitive nature of the John Smith’s Grand National field, a horse with a double-figure starting price often wins the race.

Red Rum (twice at 9/1), Grittar (7/1), West Tip (15/2), Rough Quest (7/1), Earth Summit (7/1) and 2005 victor Hedgehunter (7/1) are the only horses to have been returned at less than 10/1 since 1968.

Only four of the last 33 favourites have won: Grittar in 1982, Rough Quest in 1996, Earth Summit in 1998 and Hedgehunter in 2005. Papillon was backed down to be 10/1 joint second favourite when winning in 2000 and both West Tip (15/2) and Rhyme ‘N’ Reason (10/1) were also second best in the betting.

There have been eight long-priced surprises in the last 29 runnings: Last Suspect at 50/1, Royal Athlete and Ben Nevis both at 40/1, Silver Birch and Red Marauder at 33/1, Maori Venture and Little Polveir both at 28/1 and Rubstic at 25/1.

Even so, fancied horses have a fair record. Since 1968, when Red Alligator came in at 100/7, horses starting at 16/1 or under have won 29 times. The shortest odds for winners have been Poethlyn (1919) at 11/4, Huntsman (1862) at 3/1 and Roquefort (1885) at 100/30.

The longest odds are 100/1, with four victors being returned at that price – Tipperary Tim (1928), Gregalach (1929), Caughoo (1947) and Foinavon (1967). Three 100/1 shots have been placed since 1980 – Over The Deel in 1995, Camelot Knight in 1997 and Philson Run who was fourth last year.

AGE

Nine-year-olds have proved the most successful age group in recent years, providing eight of the last 29 winners of the John Smith’s Grand National.

Lucius wins the Grand NationalNine-year-old scorers in that period have been Lucius (1978), Grittar (1982), West Tip (1986), Rhyme ‘N’ Reason (1988), Lord Gyllene (1997), Bobbyjo (1999), Papillon (2000) and 2005 hero Hedgehunter.

There were seven winning 11-year-olds during this same time frame – Aldaniti (1981), Last Suspect (1985), Maori Venture (1987), Mr Frisk (1990), Seagram (1991), Miinnehoma (1994) and 2001 scorer Red Marauder.

Ben Nevis (1980), Little Polveir (1989), Royal Athlete (1995) and Amberleigh House (2004) at 12 are the oldest horses to succeed since 1978.

Bindaree, Party Politics and Corbiere, all of whom were eight when they triumphed in 2002, 1992 and 1983 respectively, were the youngest winners of the Grand National in the same period.

Silver Birch wins the Grand NationalSilver Birch was 10 when succeeding last year and is one of seven from that age group to win since 1978, along with Numbersixvalverde (2006), Monty’s Pass (2003), Earth Summit (1998), Rough Quest (1996), Hallo Dandy (1984) and Rubstic (1979).

Nine-year-olds have the best record in the Grand National, having won 35 times.

Lutteur III was the last five-year-old to capture the Grand National in 1909 and the fifth in all following on from Alcibiade (1865), Regal (1876), Austerlitz (1877) and Empress (1880).

The current minimum age to run in the John Smith’s Grand National is six. The oldest winner, Peter Simple in 1853, was 15.

FRENCH-TRAINED

Two French-trained horses have succeeded, Huntsman in 1862 and Cortolvin in 1867, while three other winners have been bred in France – Alcibiade (1865), Reugny (1874) and Lutteur III (1909). Clan Royal, the 2004 runner-up and 2006 third, was the latest
French-bred to go close to victory.

The Fellow, trained by Francois Doumen in France, ran in the 1994 Grand National and was attempting to become only the second horse to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Grand National in the same season. However, he fell at the Canal Turn on the second circuit. The Fellow’s misfortune continued the bad luck for his owner the Marquesa de Moratalla in the Grand National, since her brother, Alfonso de Portago, failed to complete on Garde Toi (fell) and Icy Calm (pulled up) in 1950 and 1952.

Ciel De Brion, also trained by Doumen and ridden by his son Thierry, fell five out in the 1998 Grand National, while in 2000 Djeddah finished ninth for the father and son partnership.

The same combination lined up again for the next three years. Doumen junior was unseated at the eighth in 2001, parted company from his mount four fences out in 2002 and finished 11th in 2003.

That year also saw the participation of another French challenger, the Jacques Ortet-trained Empereur River, who was pulled up by amateur Patrick Pailhes, a doctor, before Becher’s on the second circuit. The Doumens returned in 2004 with Halewood
International-owned Kelami, but he was brought down at the first. Thierry Doumen subsequently retired from race riding and became a trainer.

Innox owned by JP McmanusInnox, owned by J P McManus, represented Francois Doumen in 2005 and finished seventh under Robert Thornton. The same partnership got no further than the fi rst fence in 2006, while Doumen senior also ran First Gold, a dual winner of the John Smith’s Bowl at Aintree, who unseated his rider at the 23rd fence. The trainer in 2007 sent out the 10th L’Ami plus Kelami who was pulled up two fences from the finish.

GREYS

Nicolaus SilverOnly two greys have won the Grand National – The Lamb (1868 and 1871) and Nicolaus Silver (1961).

Suny Bay, second to Lord Gyllene in 1997, filled the same spot behind Earth Summit in 1998. Over the next two seasons Suny Bay finished 13th, while Kendal Cavalier came seventh and 12th in the same two renewals and another grey, Senor El Betrutti, fell
at the first in 2000.

Two greys were among the first four horses home in 2002 – the runner-up What’s Up Boys and the fourth Kingsmark. The three greys that ran in 2005 did not fare well – Strong Resolve finished 17th, while Double Honour unseated his rider and Marcus Du
Berlais was pulled up.

In 2006, Ross Comm fell at the fourth, while the two greys last year also failed to complete – Kandjar D’Allier fell at the eighth fence and The Outlier unseated his jockey at the 19th.

JOCKEYS

Carl LlewellynCarl Llewellyn and Ruby Walsh hold the best record of current jockeys, having each won twice. The former, now combining the role of trainer and occasional jockey, was successful on Party Politics in 1992 and Earth Summit in 1998, while Walsh partnered Papillon in 2000 and Hedgehunter five years later to victory in the world’s most famous chase.

The retired Richard Dunwoody also had two successes, with Miinnehoma in 1994 and West Tip in 1986, on whom he finished second in 1989 and fourth in 1987 and 1988.

Peter ScudamoreMany highly successful jockeys have tried and failed to win the race, including Peter Scudamore, who came third in 1985 on Corbiere, and seven-time champion jockey John Francome, who rode Rough And Tumble to third in 1979 and second in 1980.

The current record-breaking champion Tony McCoy has yet to finish better than third. In 1982, Geraldine Rees on Cheers became the first female jockey to complete the Grand National course.

Rosemary Henderson on her own horse, the 13-year-old Fiddlers Pike, when fifth at 100/1 in 1994, Carrie Ford, who filled the same position on Forest Gunner at 8/1 in 2005, and Nina Carberry, ninth on the same horse in 2006, have emulated her.

George Stevens, the winning-most jockey in Grand National history with five successes, gained his first victory on Free Trader in 1856. He followed up on Emblem (1863), Emblematic (1864) and The Colonel (1869 and 1870).

Three wins have been achieved by six riders -Tom Olliver, Mr Thomas Pickernell, Mr Tommy Beasley, Arthur Nightingall, Mr Jack Anthony and Brian Fletcher. Since 1900 three successful jockeys went on to train winners as well – Algy Anthony, Fulke Walwyn and Fred Winter.

Together with the Lincoln Handicap run on the Flat at Doncaster Racecourse, the John Smith’s Grand National forms the ‘Spring Double’. The only jockey to have won both contests is the late Dave Dick, who captured the Lincoln on Gloaming in 1941 and the Grand National on E.S.B. in 1956.

TRAINERS

Ginger McCainGinger McCain, who handed over the reins to his son Donald in 2006, is one of two trainers to have dominated the roll of honour, having won the great race four times through the record-breaking Red Rum and Amberleigh House (2004).

Nigel Twiston-Davies (Earth Summit and Bindaree) is the only
current trainer to have won the race more than once.

Jenny PitmanThe late Fred Rimell was responsible for four winners – E.S.B. in 1956, Nicolaus Silver in 1961, Gay Trip in 1970 and Rag Trade in 1976 – while Jenny Pitman, the only woman to train a John Smith’s Grand National winner, sent out Corbiere (1983) and Royal Athlete (1995). Her Esha Ness also ‘won’ the void race in 1993.

Toby Balding was also successful twice (Highland Wedding (1969) and Little Polveir (1989)) while seven trainers – William Holman, William Moore, Aubrey Hastings, Tom Coulthwaite, Vincent O’Brien, Neville Crump and Tim Forster – saddled three winners.
Three successful trainers since 1900 had earlier ridden Grand National winners as well – Algy Anthony, Fulke Walwyn and Fred Winter.

A select band of five trainers have managed to win Britain’s two most famous races – the John Smith’s Grand National and the Derby. They are George Blackwell (GN: 1923 Sergeant Murphy; D: 1903 Rock Sand), Richard Dawson (GN: 1898 Droghead; D: 1916
Fifi nella, 1929 Trigo, 1930 Blenheim), James Jewitt (GN: 1876 Regal; D: 1884 Harvester, 1892 Sir Hugo), Vincent O’Brien (GN: 1953 Early Mist, 1954 Royal Tan, 1955 Quare Times; D: 1962 Larkspur, 1968 Sir Ivor, 1970 Nijinsky, 1972 Roberto, 1977 The
Minstrel, 1982 Golden Fleece) and Willie Stephenson (GN: 1959 Oxo; D: 1951 Arctic Prince).

MARES

Mares lining up in this year’s John Smith’s Grand National have to overcome a long losing sequence for their sex, as well as the 30 fences. Overall 12 mares have won the John Smith’s Grand National, but the most recent was Nickel Coin back in 1951. Since then, the mares Gentle Moya (2nd 1956), Tiberetta (3rd 1957 and 2nd 1958), Miss Hunter (3rd 1970), Eyecatcher (3rd 1976 and 1977), Auntie Dot (3rd 1991), Ebony Jane (4th 1994)
and Dubacilla (4th 1995) have all finished in the first four. In 1999, the only mare, Fiddling The Facts, started the 6/1 favourite and was going well when she came down at Becher’s second time round.

No mares ran in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005 or 2006, while the one female representative in 2002, Wicked Crack, got no further than the first fence.

Last season, Libertine finished fifth under amateur rider Sam Waley-Cohen. The pair had previously been successful over the National fences in the John Smith’s Topham Chase in 2006.

WEIGHT

Horses hailing from the top end of the handicap have had a fairly poor record in the John Smith’s Grand National in recent years, with 25 out of the last 29 winners carrying less than 11 stone.

Horse Handicap WeightsThe highest-weighted winners in this period were Grittar (11st 5lb) in 1982, Corbiere (11st 4lb) in 1983 and Hedgehunter (11st 1lb) in 2005, while Rhyme ‘N’ Reason (1988) shouldered exactly 11st.

Other winning weights of recent winners are: 10st (Bobbyjo, Lord Gyllene, Rubstic), 10st 2lb (Hallo Dandy), 10st 3lb (Little Polveir), 10st 4lb (Bindaree), 10st 5lb (Last Suspect, Earth Summit), 10st 6lb (Royal Athlete, Seagram, Mr Frisk, Silver Birch), 10st 7lb (Monty’s Pass, Rough Quest, Party Politics), 10st 8lb (Numbersixvalverde, Miinnehoma), 10st 9lb (Lucius), 10st 10lb (Amberleigh House), 10st 11lb (Red Marauder, West Tip), 10st 12lb (Papillon, Ben Nevis) and 10st 13lb (Maori Venture, Aldaniti).

The 1999 winner, Bobbyjo, is the joint lowest-weighted horse to succeed in the last 29 runnings alongside Lord Gyllene (1997) and Rubstic (1979), though Hallo Dandy in 1984 would have carried the minimum weight if his jockey had not put up 2lb overweight,
with the same applying in 1989 to Little Polveir.

Bobbyjo in 1999 was the eighth horse since the Second World War to carry 10st to victory. The others were Caughoo (1947), Ayala (1963), Anglo (1966), Foinavon (1967), Red Alligator (1968), Rubstic (1979) and Lord Gyllene (1997). Red Rum, in the second of his three successes, shouldered 12st in 1974, while 12st 7lb is the highest weight carried to victory (Poethlyn (1919), Jerry M (1912), Manifesto (1899) and Cloister (1893).

The top-weight allocated by senior handicapper Phil Smith, who frames the weights especially for the Grand National, is currently11st 12lb.

About the Author

System Tipster

Hi, I'm the System Tipster. Not an actual real individual per se, I am actually a highly developed computer program designed to handicap and rate every racehorse in Britain and Ireland by the owners of Systemlays UK. I crunch numbers all day long to produce highly consistent horse racing backing tips and laying tips which can be viewed for free every day of the week (except most Sundays). Subscribe to my RSS feed for free and never miss a tip!

No Responses to “ Grand National Handicap Steeplechase – Statistics 2008 ”

  1. If you want any more stats onthe National, they probably don’t exist! Seriously, though, you just have to ask.

  2. [...] Read about Grand National Statistics here [...]

  3. Lies damned lies and statistics. If only finding the winner was as easy and fun as finding all of this out!

  4. [...] Grand National Statistics [...]

  5. Racing Week, Darlington & Stockton Times, says that Cloudy Lane (Donald McCain) has a cracking chance, but the records for favourites aren’t good. We like Philson Run, fourth last year and a doughty stayer, who gets in now Ollie Magern is injured. Opera Mundi belonging to Sir Robert Ogden is an each=way perhaps.

    The local to the D&ST, Joes Edge, is not likely to get a run, alas.

Leave a Reply

You can use these XHTML tags: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <strong>