Systemlays Free Sports Betting Tips

This week has not seen much improvement in our betting bank as our lay selections have seen a slight downturn in success rates. From previous years experiences, October and November often prove to be quite difficult, as we change codes from turf flat racing, with some national hunt, to the national hunt season proper, with only all-weather flat racing.

On the all-weather, we have always seen a slightly lower success rate, however, we continue to make more profit overall from all-weather racing: it is just less easy to find opportunities. This is due to many factors, not least the differing effects of the different surfaces available. For example, some horses perform better than they normally do at Wolverhampton, but below that level on the artificial surface at Kempton, or vice versa! This makes it difficult for us to objectively compare horses which have either not run on polytrack or fibresand before, or who have only done so at one course, and are now switching.

Similarly, horses which are coming out for the first time of the season (e.g. the jumpers, ready for a national hunt campaign) are often difficult to gauge - how ready are they? Will they perform up tho their last runs? Will they improve? Any race featuring a number of newcomers (or, rather, returning horses) is therefore often slightly skewed. We know what would happen if all the horses performed up to their best, and we allow for any expected improvement, though occasionally, horses will put in a big improvement, or will disappoint.

We’ll discuss our selection criteria more in the coming week.

Enough of the excuses! On with the service.

We should see the strike rate gradually climb back above the 95% rate for laying (from the past three years experience) which equates to one adverse lay out of every 20 or more lays placed. You can see, therefore, that, following our staking plan, we require either an average price of 21.0 on Betfair (though average prices really are meaningless) or just one successful lay at 2.0 or better, 2 successful lays at 3.0 or better, or 5 successful lays at 6.0 or shorter for each adverse result to make a profit (plus all of the other that are longer priced).

We do get a lot of comments about the prices of the horses we select. We make no apology for this. If you select your lays by factoring in the price, the fact is you will lose more regularly than if you select by choosing the horse with the weakest chance. Any edge you have in your selection methods is completely negated by looking for “overpriced” horses.

Why?

This is quite simple. The price of a horse by no means effects its ability. We are looking objectively at the perceived (by us) chance of each individual runner in a race. The price of a horse is subjective - it is the opinion of those who are backing or laying it which gives it this price.

We don’t price up selections. We compare horses objectively given what they have achieved before, and what they are likely to do that day, under the given conditions, against the other horses in that particular race. We select the horse we feels has the least chance of winning.

Of course, in doing this, our selection should always finish last! You’d be surprised at how often this happens, though it is also true that some go on to do much better than we predict, and around one in every 25-30 selections will win. Why is this? Because horses are not machines, and there is always the chance of improvement and below-par performance that we are not prepared for. Some horses will go to the track under-prepared, slightly unfit, or just on a bad day. Mares can be in season; colts can get hot at the course. We can have no control over this. There is also a human element in the race itself - the jockeys - and humans are also fallible. Given all of this, it would be impossible to get it right every time, however, if one can make consistent profits over time, and be reasonably certain of a strike rate in the high 90s percentage-wise, then laying becomes a viable option.

We don’t have any ‘insider knowledge’ - nor do we claim any. To claim this suggests that you are in some way unscrupulous, and that you are doing betting coups. This is not good for the sport (especially given the current trials which are taking place) and, furthermore, is often patently untrue.

We select using time, speed, and course factors. Each horse is given a rating under the day’s conditions, and we select the least likely winner as our lays, and the stand-out horses as backing selections. Over time, particularly with laying, we make a healthy profit. We also tend to hit some huge each-way winners with more than average regularity.

As the title to this page suggests, we are far from happy with this week’s performance, though we have every confidence that things will improve. Last year, when we were providing selections to paying members, after a similarly ordinary period, we went on a 120 race winning run, which also saw us lay 4 short priced favourites to lose in a day. Dips and losing runs are inevitable, our staking plan and long-term strategy should mitigate these very easily.

Now we just need to start the winning run!

At the end of the day, our selections are totally free. If you can find a better long-term laying strategy for free, please point us to it, and we’ll all grab some free cash.

Enjoy your racing!

Want more like this delivered to your RSS reader every day for free? Simply Subscribe to our RSS feed to do so!